Marius Paun | London, UK | Senior dealer | Tuesday, 16th July 2019
US President Donald Trump tweeted that China and Europe are manipulating their currencies to compete with USA and not to be left behind, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney also talked down the pound sterling. Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress was seen as dovish, suggesting an interest rate cut in the US later this month is a done deal. And that would happen amid full employment, solid economic growth of 3% per year and S&P 500 reaching an all time high above 3000. All leads to the suspicion of a return to a currency war?
Gold remained above $1400 mark as Bloomberg reported that central banks buying in 2019 is on track for 700 tons, which represents an increase of 73% compared with last year. The main reasons were slowdown in economic growth, geopolitical tensions and trade disputes as well as attempts to diversify reserves from fiat currencies.
China June Inflation data showed CPI at 2.7%, in line with expectations the lowest since August 2016, which could be problematic for industrial profits going forward.
In the US, FOMC June meeting minutes saw many Fed officials calling for a rate cut as a ‘cushion for shocks’ adding that inflation expectations were inconsistent with the 2% goal.
In UK, the pound fell below 1.25 to the dollar to a low of 1.2440, the weakest level since April 2017. The slump was based on the lingering Brexit uncertainty still weighing on the economy which is expected to contract in Q2, the first time in 7 years. UK Prime Minister contender Boris Johnson maintains that the country must be prepared to leave EU without a deal. On Friday GBPUSD rebounded slightly around 1.2550.
Meanwhile the former International Monetary Fund Chief Christine Lagarde is set to be confirmed as the new ECB President in October. At the same time European Commission warned of rising downside risks and downgraded the euro zone economic outlook in its latest forecast. ECB minutes also indicated a governing council agreeing on the need to prepare for policy easing. Despite that we can see EURUSD holding between 1.1240 to 1.1280 range.